Legitimate Fears About a Trump Presidency

 Before the lockdown, I had a conversation with someone I respect highly.  She is highly educated, thoughtful, and reasonable. She happens also to be African American.

I mentioned that I appreciated the fact that few military personnel had died under Trump.  "I'm a big fan of not getting Americans blown up."

Her response: "I am too."  She went on to say, "Donald Trump doesn't bother me. He's just another guy out for himself."  What worried her was that Trump's over-the-top, bullying rhetoric encouraged white racists who could then become violent.

In an earlier conversation with her, I had mentioned that I favored removing monuments for Confederate "heroes" from public places and putting them in museums.  She said she was okay with leaving the monuments there as long as both the good and the bad about these people was discussed. In other words, she had a more moderate position than I did. 

When a moderate, reasonable person expresses fears about Trump, I have to take those fears seriously. Since then, I have had other conversations with African Americans--all educated and reasonable--about their fears. 

[What follows is an update made on November 6, 2024]

One woman, a devout Christian, began 2017 by saying that we need to pray for Trump. A few months into his term, she expressed the opinion that Trump's belligerence has made it easier for people to be socially aggressive. A man said, "He has given racists permission to come out of their shells."

Yesterday, [November 6, 2025--an update] I had a conversation with a woman who grew up in poverty and holds an engineering degree. She expressed the same fears. 

Recently, Trump did something to amplify those fears and make them seem even more legitimate. 

He called into a radio talk show and announced that there were 13 thousand migrants who are convicted murderers and have bad genes. The 13k convicted murderers figure appears to be true.  NBC reported this statistic and cited ICE--Immigration and Customs Enforcement--as a source. 

The problem comes with Trump dragging genetics into this conversation. The evidence for a link between genes and violence is decidedly mixed.  One Finnish study of prison inmates, most of whom were presumably white, did find that a subset of violent criminals had alterations in neurotransmitter metabolism and neurtransmitter membranes that non-violent offenders did not have.  Those alterations appear to have been genetically based. 

Other research has implicated stressful experience in the womb, in early childhood, and in early adolescence.  These experiences don't change the DNA but do change the way it is expressed, leading to exaggerated aggression as a response to events. In this case, genes alone do not lead to crime but rather, some interaction between genes and environment. 

Violent behavior may be an outcome of head injury, as well. Head injury, of course, is an environmental factor and not a genetic one. 

The take-home message: while genes may be responsible for a percentage of violence, other factors see to be of equal or greater importance.

No one is expecting Trump to be a geneticist, but it would be nice if he or his staff did a little more research before he expresses opinions on complex topics.